Climate Change as a Driver of Migration

Climate change, previously handled as an isolated environmental factor, has now become a controlling factor in reshaping global geopolitics.

The effects of climate change are interconnected with migration movements and the spread of conflicts and are changing the socio-political landscape of different continents.

Climate Change as a Driver of Migration

Climate-based migration is gaining prominence. Disturbances to the environment such as prolonged dry periods, turbocharged storms, and higher water levels are making some places habitable, prompting people to move elsewhere and settle.

The Central American Dry Corridor across countries such as Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras is one such example. Unpredictable drought trends driven by climate change since 2001 have seen enormous harvest failures, which have pushed rural colonizers to flee in pursuit of better living conditions.

At least 25% of the region’s households were estimated to have been in food insecurity as of 2018, reflecting the severity of the crisis. Similarly, the Middle East has experienced significant climate-related migration.

Syria experienced its worst drought in history between 2007 and 2010, leading to severe agricultural losses and prompting numerous farming families to migrate to cities.

This climate stress contributed to fueling the Syrian civil war, which serves to illustrate the intricate interrelationship between socio-political stability and climate change.

Climate-Induced Conflicts

The dynamic between conflict and climate change is intricate. Climate stressors can exacerbate pre-existing socio-economic and political tensions, thereby producing unrest

. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Sixth Assessment Report drew the conclusion that while climate hazards have influenced armed conflict within countries, their influence is modest compared to socio-economic, political, and cultural variables.

In nations like the Central African Republic and Sudan, competition for decreasing resources such as water and land has fueled conflict between communities.

For instance, the Darfur conflict has, to some extent, been attributed to competition between pastoral and agrarian communities over scarce water resources, fueled by prolonged droughts.

Geopolitical Implications

The geopolitical consequences of climate change-related migration and conflict are extreme. Countries which experience substantial loss of migrants can be burdened with economic instability resulting from shortage of labor as well as loss of productivity in agriculture.

Alternatively, states to which considerable immigrants flow might struggle with social tension, overload on public facilities, and political divide.In the US, for example, climate change, particularly drought, greatly affects Mexican immigration.

Rural farmers northbound into economic destitution when Mexico’s drought and climate extremes increase illustrate the connection between immigration and climate change policies.

Moreover, the climate-induced resource scarcity could become geopolitical crises between countries. The melting of ice in the Arctic opened the route to new sea lanes and hitherto inaccessible natural resources and hence created international strategic competition by countries like the United States, Russia, and China.

This “great global land reshuffle” renders preparation for large-scale global competition for land and resources imperative.

Policy Responses and Challenges

Fighting the interconnected evils of climate change, migration, and conflict necessitates wide-ranging and cooperative policy action. Political processes frequently frustrate this possibility. For example, the Trump administration’s withdrawal of U.S. military reports on climate change has been criticized as risking national security by neglecting climate threats. The abandoned studies involved investigating global migration, climate influence, and social trends, emphasizing the demand for evidence-based policy-making.

International forums like the United Nations climate conference (COP29) are faced with the dilemma of addressing climate change amidst ongoing global conflicts. Wars divert vital resources and erode international cooperation on climate issues, making it challenging to set up financial aid from developed countries to assist developing countries in their battle against climate change.

The Path ForwardIn order to respond to the geopolitical effects of climate change, a multi-dimensional approach is needed:

1. Building Climate Resilience:

Climate-resilient infrastructure and agricultural systems need to be invested in, so that communities’ exposure to climate variability is minimized.

2. Enabling Sustainable Development:

Offering economic opportunities in climate-affected regions can avoid forced displacement and reduce the likelihood of conflict.

3. Constructing International Cooperation:

Collective efforts are necessary in fashioning the transboundary nature of combating climate-related problems. This encompasses information exchange, technology, and material that will aid in increasing global resilience.

4. Integration of Climate Considerations into Security Policies:

Integration of climate change as a threat multiplier necessitates its inclusion in national and international security policies.

In short, the geopolitics of climate change is a subtle dynamic interaction between environment, society, and political factors. A grasp of such an intersection as well as their management is the key to stimulating global stability and welfare among the vulnerable populations.

Hina Ismail

Karachi.